Mortgage Rates Declining As Discount Points Increase

Since about 2007, interest rates of all mortgage types have been on a steady decline. However, as mortgage rates have dropped, closing costs have soared. The required discount points on a mortgage and the loan’s associated costs have climbed over each of the last 5 years.

It’s a trend which is expected to extend into 2013, and beyond. Mortgage rate shoppers can expect low rates going forward, but with increased closing fees than before.

US mortgage rates decline to near record lows?

Yahoo News reported end of December that U.S. mortgage rates have declined to near record lows.  The record was held in 1971 with 3.31%.

The average rate on the U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage last week dipped closer to the lowest on record, a trend that is making home buying more affordable and also enabling more Americans to refinance their loans.

Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac says the average rate on a 30-year loan declined to 3.35 percent from 3.37 percent last week.

The average on the 15-year fixed mortgage was unchanged at 2.65 percent. The record low is 2.63 percent.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.66 percent this year, Freddie Mac said, the lowest annual average in 65 years.

Frank Nothaft, chief economist at Freddie Mac, said the average 30-year rate has fallen 0.6 percentage points this year. That would save a homeowner about $98,000 in interest payments over the life of a $200,000 loan, he said.

The Federal Reserve is purchasing about $85 billion each month in Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities in an effort to push down long-term interest rates.

Oddly enough, BankRate just posted news today that mortgage rates are at their highest in months:

Mortgage rates rose this week as optimistic investors were reminded that eventually, the Federal Reserve will have to stop buying mortgage bonds to keep rates low.
30 year fixed rate mortgage – 3 month trend
The benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 3.67 percent from 3.58 percent, according to the Bankrate.com national survey of large lenders. The mortgages in this week’s survey had an average total of 0.32 discount and origination points. One year ago, the mortgage index stood at 4.18 percent; four weeks ago, it was 3.52 percent.
This is the highest rate for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in nearly four months. The last time it was higher was the Sept. 19, 2012, survey, when the 30-year fixed averaged 3.7 percent.
The benchmark 15-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 2.92 percent from 2.88 percent. The benchmark 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage rose to 2.77 percent from 2.76 percent.

Discount Points Climb 65 Percent From “Mortgage Heyday”

From TheMortgageReports:

Among the biggest factors in today’s higher costs is an increase in loan discount points.
1 discount point is equal to one percent of the borrowed loan size and the more discount points you pay to the lender, the lower your actual mortgage rate. For example :

• The 30-year fixed mortgage rate with 0 accompanying discount points may be 3.50%
• The 30-year fixed mortgage rate with 1 accompanying discount point may be 3.25%
• The 30-year fixed mortgage rate with 2 accompanying discount points may be 3.00%

There is often no limit to the number of discount points you can add to a mortgage quote but, eventually, it becomes cost-prohibitive. You likely would not want to pay 5 discount points, for example, to get a rate in the mid-2s.

So Why Are Discount Points Rising?

Back in 2010, USA Today reported that mortgage closing costs were 37% higher because:

Some housing experts say costs are rising because lenders have had to hire more staff to comply with the requirements of the Jan. 1 rule. That includes auditors, inspection experts and others who make sure estimates are accurate.
“Lenders have had to hire compliance people,” David Leoncavallo, president of GFEazy, a Salt Lake City provider of compliance and other data for lenders. “To go up from $2,700 to $3,700 overnight is insane. Consumers should be upset.”

But, it was also reported:

But others say closing costs haven’t gone up. Rather, they say, the estimates simply seem higher because they more accurately reflect actual costs that buyers pay.
“Before, it wasn’t an accurate assessment of closing costs,” says Tim Dwyer, president of Entitle Direct, a direct-to-consumer title insurance service. “Now, it’s a more accurate portrayal. Actual closing costs have not increased. The estimates have gotten closer to the actual costs.”
The good-faith estimates also are aimed at protecting consumers by ensuring that lenders don’t lowball the numbers, says Vicki Bott, deputy assistant director of the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
“Consumers get more accurate estimates upfront,” she says. “It’s not an increase in closing costs.”

So, do your research, and work with a reputable mortgage loan officer who will help you find the best balance for your needs.

Market Commentary - could be a volatile week for rates.

September 10, 2012 

This week brings us the release of six relevant economic reports that may influence mortgage rates in addition to two Treasury auctions and an afternoon of FOMC events. Several of the economic reports and the FOMC stuff are all considered to be highly important to the financial and mortgage markets, meaning that we may see significant changes to rates this week. There is a very good chance of seeing noticeable changes in rates several days. There is no relevant news scheduled to be posted Monday, so look for the stock markets to be the biggest force behind bond trading and changes to mortgage pricing until we get to the middle part of the week.

The week’s first event is July’s Goods and Services Trade Balance data early Tuesday morning, giving us the size of the U.S. trade deficit. It is expected to show a deficit of approximately $44.0 billion, which would be an increase from June’s $42.9 billion. However, I would consider this the least important of this week’s events, meaning it will likely have little impact on bond trading or mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts.

There are two Treasury auctions this week that have the potential to influence mortgage rates. The first is Wednesday’s 10-year Treasury Note auction, which will be followed by a 30-year Bond auction Thursday. It is fairly common to see some weakness in bonds before these sales as investors prepare for them. If the sales are met with a decent demand from investors, indicating that interest in longer-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds still exists, the earlier losses are usually recovered after the results are announced. The results of Wednesday’s sale will be posted at 1:00 PM ET while Thursday’s results are set for 11:30 AM ET due to other events scheduled that day. If demand was strong, particularly from international investors, we should see mortgage rates improve during afternoon trading Wednesday. However, due to the magnitude of Thursday’s Fed events, that day’s auction will likely have little impact on the bond market and mortgage rates.

One of the week’s two important inflation readings is the only economic report scheduled for release Thursday morning. The Labor Department will post August’s Producer Price Index (PPI) at 8:30 AM ET, giving us an important measurement of inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two readings that analysts follow in this release. They are the overall index and the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two since it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. Analysts are predicting a 1.2% increase in the overall index, and a rise of 0.2% in the core data. Stronger than expected readings could fuel inflation concerns in the bond market. That would be bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because inflation is the number one nemesis of the bond market as it erodes the value of a bond’s future fixed interest payments. As inflation becomes more of a concern in the markets, bonds become less appealing to investors, leading to falling prices and higher mortgage rates.

Thursday’s Fed events start with the 12:30 PM adjournment of the FOMC meeting that began Wednesday. It is widely expected that Mr. Bernanke and company will not change key short-term interest rates at this meeting, but there is a great deal of hope in the market that we are getting closer to another move by the Fed such as QE3. Friday’s Employment numbers helped bolster the calls for Fed action. I believe that an announcement of a bond buying program should rally not only stocks but also bonds and mortgage rates because those are the securities that the Fed will purchase in the QE program. On the other hand, the lack of at least a strong indication that QE3 is coming soon will probably lead to selling in the markets and an upward revision to mortgage rates.

Also worth noting is that the FOMC meeting is ending earlier than the traditional 2:15 PM because it is one of the meetings that will be followed by a press conference with Fed Chairman Bernanke. The meeting will adjourn at 12:30 PM while the press conference will begin at 2:15 PM and will probably lead to afternoon volatility in the markets and mortgage rates Thursday. The Fed will also update their economic and monetary policy projections right before the press conference begins. They are expected to be posted at 2:00 PM ET. Any significant revisions to the Fed’s outlook on unemployment, GDP growth or their timetable for keeping key rates at current levels will also cause volatility in the markets and mortgage rates.

Friday has the remaining four pieces of economic data with two of them considered to be major releases. Those highly important reports are August’s Retail Sales and Consumer Price Index (CPI) will both be posted at 8:30 AM. The sales report will give us a very important measurement of consumer spending, which is extremely relevant to the markets because it makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.7% increase in sales. Analysts are also calling for a 0.8% rise in sales if more volatile auto transactions are excluded. Larger than expected increases would be considered bad news for bonds and likely lead to an increase in mortgage pricing since it would indicate economic growth.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is also one of the most important reports we see each month. It is considered to be a key indicator of inflation at the consumer level of the economy. As with its’ sister PPI report, there are two readings in the report- the overall index and the core data reading. Current forecasts show a 0.6% increase in the overall reading and a 0.2% rise in the core data reading. As with the PPI, a larger increase in the core data would signal rising inflation and would likely lead to higher mortgage rates Friday morning.

August’s Industrial Production data will be posted mid-morning Friday. This report gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is considered to be moderately important but could help change mortgage rates if there is a significant difference between forecasts and the actual reading. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.2% decline from July’s level of output. A sizable increase could lead to slightly higher mortgage rates, while a weaker than expected figure would indicate a softer than thought manufacturing sector and would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates. However, the CPI and Retail Sales reports are the key data of the day and will likely influence mortgage pricing much more than the production report will.

The last release of the week will be posted by the University of Michigan late Friday morning. Their Index of Consumer Sentiment will give us an indication of consumer confidence, which hints at consumers’ willingness to spend. If consumer confidence in their own financial situation is rising is rising, they are more apt to make large purchases. But, if they are growing more concerned about their job security or finances, they probably will delay making that large purchase. This influences future consumer spending data and can impact the financial markets. It is expected to show a reading of 73.3, which would mean confidence slipped from August’s level of 74.3. That would be considered favorable news for bonds and mortgage rates because waning consumer spending indicates slower economic growth.

Overall, I think we need to label Thursday as the most important day of the week with the PPI and Fed events scheduled. However, Friday has some very important economic data set for release and also has the potential to heavily influence bond trading and mortgage rates. Monday will probably end up being the calmest day for mortgage rates, but we still may see minor changes if the stock markets show much movement. I strongly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate, especially the latter part of the week.

Is the glass half full or half empty? Larry Winget telling it like he sees it

Is the glass half full or half empty? Who cares! ©Larry Winget

This Week’s Market Commentary

August 27, 2012

This week brings us the release of six economic reports that may affect mortgage rates along with two Treasury auctions and a Fed conference that has several key speakers. There is nothing of relevance scheduled for tomorrow, so look for the stock markets to drive bond trading and mortgage rates tomorrow. With data and related events scheduled every other day of the week, it is likely to be an active one for mortgage rates.

The Conference Board will post their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for August late Tuesday morning. This index measures consumer sentiment about their personal financial situations, giving us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If consumers are feeling more confident in their own finances, they are more apt to make a large purchase in the near future, fueling economic growth. A decline in confidence would indicate that surveyed consumers probably will not be buying something big in the immediate future. That would be a sign of economic weakness and should drive bond prices higher, leading to lower mortgage rates Tuesday. It is expected to show a reading of 65.5, which would be a slight decline from July’s 65.9. The lower the reading, the better the news for bonds and mortgage rates.
Wednesday has two reports scheduled that can potentially influence mortgage pricing. The first is the first revision to the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 8:30 AM ET. The GDP is the total of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best measurement of economic activity.

This reading is the second of three that we see each quarter. Last month’s preliminary reading revealed that the economy grew at an annual rate of 1.5%. Wednesday’s revision is expected to show that the GDP actually rose only 1.6%. A smaller than expected reading should help lower mortgage rates Wednesday, especially if the inflation portion of the release does not get revised higher. There will be a final revision issued next month, but it probably will have little impact on mortgage rates since traders will be more interested in the current quarter’s activity.

The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book report at 2:00 PM ET Wednesday. This report details current economic conditions in the U.S. by Federal Reserve regions. It is believed to be a key source of data when the Fed meets for their FOMC meetings and is usually released approximately two weeks prior to each meeting. If it reveals any significant surprises or changes from the past, we may see movement in the markets and mortgage pricing as analysts adjust their theories on the Fed’s next move. Most likely though, it will be a non-event and will not lead to a noticeable change in mortgage rates.
July’s Personal Income and Outlays report will be released early Thursday morning, giving us a measurement of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. It is expected to show an increase of 0.3% in income and a 0.5% increase in spending. Since consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, weaker than expected numbers would be considered good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Friday is a multi-release day with August’s revision to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment and last month’s Factory Orders data both being posted late Friday morning. The sentiment index helps us track consumer willingness to spend similarly to Tuesday’s CCI. It is expected to show no change from August’s preliminary reading of 73.6. If it revises lower, consumers were less confident about their personal financial situations than previously thought. This would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates because waning confidence usually means that consumers are less likely to make large purchases in the near future. As with the CCI index, the lower the reading the better the news for bonds and mortgage rates.

July’s Factory Orders data measures manufacturing sector strength and is similar to last week’s Durable Goods Orders, but includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. It is expected to show a 2.0% increase in new orders. A smaller than expected rise would be favorable for bonds, but I don’t see this data causing much movement in rates unless its results vary greatly from forecasts since the big-ticket products portion of the report was released last week.

Also worth mentioning are a couple of Treasury auctions that may affect bond trading and mortgage rates this week along with a speaking engagement by Fed Chairman Bernanke. The two relevant Treasure auctions are Wednesday’s 5-year Note and Thursday’s 7-year Note sales. Results of the auctions will be posted at 1:00 PM ET each day. If investor interest is strong in the auctions, we can expect the broader bond market to rally and mortgage rates to move lower. However, lackluster demand could lead to bond selling and higher mortgage rates Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

Mr. Bernanke will be speaking Friday morning at the Jackson Hole Fed conference in Wyoming. He will be addressing current and future economic conditions, so his words are likely to influence the markets and mortgage pricing Friday. Also scheduled to speak are the European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund Presidents. What they will say and how it will impact the markets is difficult to predict, but there is a high probability of the markets reacting heavily to their words, so the event needs to be watched.
Overall, I believe it is going to be a fairly active week for the financial and mortgage markets. The calmest day will likely be tomorrow, but choosing the best candidate for the most important day isn’t as easy. Wednesday has two economic reports scheduled along with the 5-year Note auction, but Friday’s Jackson Hole conference can be a market mover by itself without the two economic reports that are scheduled that day. So, let’s go with Wednesday AND Friday as the key days of the week. Since it looks to be another active week, I strongly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate.

This Week’s Market Commentary

August 20, 2012

This week brings us the release of only three pieces of monthly economic data in addition to the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. There is nothing of relevance to mortgage rates scheduled for release today or Tuesday, so look for the stock markets to drive bond trading and mortgage rates until we get to mid-week.

The first piece of data will be July’s Existing Home Sales report late Wednesday morning. The National Association of Realtors will release this report, giving us a measurement of housing sector strength. It covers a very high percentage of all home sales in the U.S., but usually does not have a major influence on bond trading and mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from analysts’ forecasts. It is expected to show an increase from June’s sales, meaning the housing sector strengthened last month. This would generally be bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates because a strengthening housing sector makes a broader economic recovery a little easier. But unless the increase is much larger than current forecasts, the report will likely have a minimal impact on Wednesday’s mortgage pricing.

Also Wednesday, we will get the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. There is a pretty good possibility of the markets reacting to them following their 2:00 PM ET release, especially if they show some divisiveness by its members. It will be interesting to see some of the Fed member’s views on the economy and inflation and if they will hint what the Fed’s next move may be, particularly about the need for more economic stimulus. But this is one of those events that can cause significant movement in rates after its release or be a non-factor. I suspect that this particular release will cause movement in bond prices, but not enough to significantly affect mortgage pricing.

July’s New Home Sales data will be released at 10:00 AM ET Thursday morning. This report is the least important release of the week. It will give us another indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but only tracks a small portion of all home sales. It usually doesn’t have a major impact on bond prices or mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts. Current forecasts are calling for an increase in sales of newly constructed homes from June to July.

The final economic report of the week will come from the Commerce Department, who will post July’s Durable Goods Orders early Friday morning. This report will give us an important measure of manufacturing sector strength. It data tracks orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket items, or products that are expected to last three or more years. A much weaker reading than the expected 2.5% rise that is expected would indicate that the manufacturing sector is not as strong as thought. This would be good news for bonds, but this data is known to be quite volatile from month-to-month. Therefore, it will take a large variance from forecasts for this report to have a noticeable impact on Friday’s mortgage rates.

Overall, I suspect that Wednesday or Friday will likely be the most active days for mortgage rates with tomorrow or Tuesday being the calmest. I am expecting to see much less movement in rates this week than we saw last week. Still, you should maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate as the markets can defy logic at any time, as we saw during last week’s activities.

5 Reasons it’s Time for a Home in 2012

It’s true that money can’t buy happiness, but knowing that the value of your assets will grow over time does give you peace of mind.

Negative press is leaving some home buyers stuck on the fence, but here are a few reasons to climb down.


1. In the long run you come out ahead; in the short run you enjoy your home. The paper value of your home won’t rise much in the next couple of years. But if you want a home where you can raise your children or retire for the rest of your life, the paper value will rise significantly, or probably double or triple during that time.


2. The recent survey by the Hartford/MIT Lab’s Home for a Lifetime survey shows that half of all homeowners prefer their current home for retirement. Another 10 percent may choose to retire there, but aren’t yet sure.


3. A home is like a savings account. Your initial costs of home buying will come back to you many times over during the life of your mortgage. Your stake in the home builds every month. You’ll have more than rent receipts in the future.


4. Mortgage payments are fixed; rental payments rise. On a fixed-rate mortgage, you know what your payment will be each month for years to come. (As inflation rises, you’ll be making those payments with less expensive dollars.)


5. Apartment rents through the third quarter of 2010 were up 2.4 percent nationwide for the year and up twice that amount in larger cities. Nice apartments were hard to find because the national vacancy rate is the lowest since 2006, according to a study by real estate research firm Reis, Inc.

There are many more reasons for having a home of your own, reasons that have little to do with the financial aspects:


Stability and community. You get to know the neighbors. Your kids won’t have to change schools. They can keep their friends. You get to know their teachers and which parks, neighborhood facilities and merchants are best for you. Studies show that as people develop positive relationships with neighbors, they have more happiness and less stress.


You get to be the boss. Dealing with a landlord and negotiating repairs are hassles you won’t have to deal with. As the boss of your own place, you can paint, renovate and redecorate as much as you want and in any color or style you want.

This Week’s Market Commentary

This week brings us the release of six reports that may influence mortgage rates, but only two of them are considered to be highly important. With no relevant auctions or speeches on tap, I suspect we will see much less movement in mortgage rates this week compared to the past couple of weeks.

With the wild swings in the markets last week, a calmer week won’t be too difficult to accomplish. We will still likely see more movement in the major indexes and mortgage rates, but probably to a lesser degree. There is no relevant data scheduled for release today, so look for the stock markets to drive bond trading and mortgage rates. Tuesday has two of the week’s six reports scheduled to be posted.

The first is July’s Housing Starts data. This report gives us an indication of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand. However, it isn’t considered to be of high importance to the bond market or mortgage pricing and usually doesn’t cause much movement in mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts.

July’s Industrial Production is Tuesday’s second report with a release time of 9:15 AM ET. It gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is considered to be moderately important to the markets and can influence mortgage rates slightly if it is a dead day for other news or events. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.4% increase in production, indicating some strength in the manufacturing sector. Good news for the bond market and mortgage rates would be a decline in output, signaling sector weakness.

One of the week’s key inflation indexes is July’s Producer Price Index (PPI) that will be posted early Wednesday morning. It will give us an indication of inflation at the producer level of the economy. There are two readings in the report- the overall index and the core data reading. The core data is more important because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices that can change significantly from month to month. Current forecasts call for no change in the overall reading and a 0.2% increase in the core data. A larger increase in the core data could push mortgage rates higher Wednesday morning. If it reveals weaker than expected readings, we may see mortgage rates improve as a result.

The PPI will be followed by the even more important Consumer Price Index (CPI) early Thursday morning. The Consumer Price Index is one of the most important reports we see each month as it measures inflation at the consumer level of the economy. As with the PPI, there are also two readings in the report. Current forecasts call for a 0.2% increase in the overall index and a 0.2% rise in the core data reading. Declines in the readings, especially in the core data, should lead to lower mortgage rates. However, stronger than expected readings will likely cause an increase to mortgage pricing Thursday

July’s Existing Home Sales report will be posted late Thursday morning. The National Association of Realtors will release this report, giving us a measurement of housing sector strength. It covers approximately 85% of home sales in the U.S., but usually does not have a major influence on bond trading and mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from analysts’ forecasts. It is expected to show an increase from June’s sales, meaning the housing sector strengthened last month. This would generally be bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates because a strengthening housing sector makes a broader economic recovery a little easier.

The third report of the day Thursday will come from the Conference Board, who will give us its Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for July. This index attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months and is considered to be moderately important. A higher than expected reading is bad news for the bond market because it indicates that the economy may be strengthening more than thought. However, a weaker than expected reading means that the economy may not grow as much as predicted, making stocks less appealing to investors. This also eases inflation concerns in the bond market and could lead to slightly lower mortgage rates Thursday if the stock markets remain calm and the day’s other data does not show any surprises. It is expected to show an increase of 0.2 % in the index, indicating minor economic growth over the next couple of months. The CPI will be the focus of the morning, so it will take a sizable difference between forecasts and its actual reading for this report to influence mortgage rates.

Overall, look for Thursday to be the busiest day of the week with the CPI being released, but Wednesday’s PPI can also cause plenty of movement in the markets and mortgage rates. Friday looks to be the lightest day. The rest of the week will likely be influenced by stock prices in addition to the moderately important economic data, which can be quite volatile as we have seen over the past couple weeks. Therefore, keep an eye on the markets and maintain contact with your mortgage professional if you have not locked an interest rate yet.